Budget: ‘2.3m per barrel, $60 dollar oil benchmark not realistic’

Mr Bank-Anthony Okoroafor, an energy expert says the projected 2.3 million barrel of crude oil production per day and 60 dollar oil benchmark in the 2019 budget is not realistic.

Okoroafor in an interview with the News Agency of Nigeria (NAN) in Abuja, on Sunday, said the projection does not follow the uncertainties in the global oil market.
“Production of 2.3 mbpd projection for 2019 may not be realistic owing to OPEC’s plan to cut production in order to shore up prices and growing crude inventory and excess supply verse demand.

“The benchmark price of 60 dollar used for the budget is not smart based on all the uncertainties and volatility surrounding the price of oil and surplus production,’’ he said.

According to him, the reality today is 59 dollar per barrel.

He added that the global crude oil price would average 61 dollar a barrel in 2019 according to the short- term energy outlook by the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
“The estimate is 11 dollar per barrel lower than the EIA prediction just a month ago.

“The forecast dropped after oil prices dipped below 50 dollar a barrel in November, the average for the month was 65 dollars.

“They believed higher U.S. supplies will flood the market at the same time slowing global growth and will cut into demand. Saudi Arabia and Russia had also produced oil at record levels.

“On Dec. 7, OPEC agreed to cut 1.2 million barrel per day from the October levels. Members will cut 800,000 barrels per day and allies will cut 400,000 bpd. Cuts will continue for six months.

“OPEC’s goal is to return prices to 70 dollars a barrel by early 2019. Will this happen based on the volatility of oil prices today? Only time will tell,’’ he said

Okoroafor further stressed that government must consider all of the uncertainties in the global market noting that the volatility of oil prices would continue in 2019.

He added that the U.S. average daily production would rise to a record level of 12.1 million barrels per day in 2019 from 9.4 mbpd in 2017 and 10.9 mbpd in 2018.

He said that the U.S. shale producers became effective that they were profitable at 30 dollars per barrel adding that production from West Texas alone would increase by two million bpd in 2019

“The oil wells in Gulf cannot stop producing even at low oil prices. OPEC has not been willing to cut output enough to rebase the oil price.

“Members do not want to lose market share to U.S. companies.

“Increased U.S. production in 2019 means OPEC will no longer have the clout to control prices. Finally global demand for oil will drop in 2019 as China which consumes 12 per cent of the global oil production has slowed down. (NAN)

http://thenationonlineng.net/budget-2-3m-per-barrel-60-dollar-oil-benchmark-not-realistic/


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35 Comments

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  1. Well! It’s well even when we are in well.

  2. Whatever they should do it well with integrity

  3. I Know the president goofed in his budget presentation, this is another evidence

  4. This government is just trying to f**l and cajoled the electorates

  5. I give God the glory for making the govt to see the angle to assist the popullae.

  6. Isn’t this looking quite outrageous?

  7. I believe they will do something to it to meet up

  8. kudos to the government… they are just trying their best

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  10. He really doing his best @ mr president

  11. Nigeria is in an unfortunate situation

  12. We only project on paper we never at how realistic will it be

  13. the 2019 budget is not realistic at all, it is questionable

  14. Developed countries have ways of getting what they want

  15. Federal government should find a realistic benchmark price.

  16. Why the emphasis on oil? Govt should try exploring other sectors of the economy

  17. Nigeria is a blessed place but what shall we do with sorts of these senseless leaders?

  18. Nigeria finance and manifestos is becoming unrealistic over years

  19. Let them do something about it if it is unrealistic

  20. Let them do something about it if it is unrealistic , God will help them.

  21. We need more expertise hands on deck now more than never before!

  22. 70 dollar per barrel, can that possible? Am patiently waiting for that to happened

  23. is buhari really doing his best?

  24. All these promises and buhati has fulfilled none

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